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KMID : 1044620220550020164
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Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
2022 Volume.55 No. 2 p.164 ~ p.172
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Spatio-temporal Distribution of Suicide Risk in Iran: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Repeated Cross-sectional Data
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Nazari Seyed Saeed Hashemi
Mansori Kamyar
Kangavari Hajar Nazari
Shojaei Ahmad
Arsang-Jang Shahram
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Abstract
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Objectives: We aimed to estimate the space-time distribution of the risk of suicide mortality in Iran from 2006 to 2016.
Methods: In this repeated cross-sectional study, the age-standardized risk of suicide mortality from 2006 to 2016 was determined. To estimate the cumulative and temporal risk, the Besag, York, and Mollie and Bernardinelli models were used.
Results: The relative risk of suicide mortality was greater than 1 in 43.0% of Iran’s provinces (posterior probability >0.8; range, 0.46 to 3.93). The spatio-temporal model indicated a high risk of suicide in 36.7% of Iran’s provinces. In addition, significant upward temporal trends in suicide risk were observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Kermanshah, and Gilan. A significantly decreasing pattern of risk was observed for men (β, ?0.013; 95% credible interval [CrI], ?0.010 to ?0.007), and a stable pattern of risk was observed for women (β, ?0.001; 95% CrI, ?0.010 to 0.007). A decreasing pattern of suicide risk was observed for those aged 15?29 years (β, ?0.006; 95% CrI, ?0.010 to ?0.0001) and 30?49 years (β, ?0.001; 95% CrI, ?0.018 to ?0.002). The risk was stable for those aged >50 years.
Conclusions: The highest risk of suicide mortality was observed in Iran’s northwestern provinces and among Kurdish women. Although a low risk of suicide mortality was observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, and Gilan, the risk in these provinces is increasing rapidly compared to other regions.
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KEYWORD
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Suicide mortality, Longitudinal, Trend, Spatial analysis, Self-injurious behavior
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